Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Price on July 25, 2025: Expert Analysis & Trends
As of July 25, 2025, Microsoft (MSFT) is trading at $510.88, gaining +0.99% on the day and inching closer to its all-time highs. After printing a clean bullish reversal candle, MSFT is looking to reclaim upside momentum following a brief three-day pullback.
- Current Price: $510.88
- Daily Forecast: Slightly bullish bias, testing prior highs
- 52-Week Range: $309.45 – $522.12
- Most Critical Support: $504.00-$500.00
- Key Resistance Zone: $516.30 – $522.00
Key Observation: MSFT bounced strongly after a near-perfect retest of the $502–$504 demand zone. This kind of reaction candle, especially near a trendline or breakout area, often signals bullish continuation — but volume confirmation will be key in the next 1–2 sessions.
Contents
Candlestick Chart Analysis
Market Structure:
Microsoft has been in a clear uptrend since mid-June. From the low near $434 in mid-June, the stock has rallied aggressively, forming higher highs and higher lows across the daily chart.
Recent Price Action Today:
- The July 25 candle shows a bullish engulfing-like move off the $507 zone — buyers stepped in early and controlled the day.
- The lower wick from the previous red candle suggested early dip buying. That thesis confirmed with today’s close.
- MSFT is now back above $510, aiming for the key $516.30–$522 resistance band.
Pattern Breakdown:
- On July 23–24, MSFT dipped sharply and printed a two-bar pullback.
- July 25 printed a bullish follow-through candle with strong body and minimal upper wick — this is a signal of intent from bulls.
- We’re seeing a rising channel structure, and this move is potentially another leg toward upper channel resistance near $522.
Volume & Trend Context:
- Though volume data isn’t shown in the chart, the price structure implies controlled movement — no signs of distribution yet.
- RSI and MACD (not visible) would likely show moderate bullish momentum — no parabolic signals, just steady trend.
MSFT Support and Resistance Levels Table
| Type | Price Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $516.30 | Recent swing high |
| Resistance 2 | $518.80 | Minor intraday high / fib extension |
| Resistance 3 | $522.12 | 52-week high / all-time high |
| Resistance 4 | $530.00 | Projected breakout extension |
| Support 1 | $504.00 | Key bounce zone / daily demand |
| Support 2 | $502.50 | Intraday low on July 24 |
| Support 3 | $498.40 | Last major swing low |
| Support 4 | $475.00 | Base of June breakout (gap-fill area) |
7-Day Price Forecast Table
| Date | High | Low | Expected Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 26 | $513.50 | $506.00 | $511.80 |
| July 27 | $515.80 | $509.00 | $513.90 |
| July 28 | $518.00 | $510.20 | $516.10 |
| July 29 | $522.50 | $514.00 | $520.30 |
| July 30 | $525.50 | $517.20 | $522.90 |
| July 31 | $528.00 | $519.50 | $526.40 |
| Aug 1 | $530.50 | $521.20 | $529.10 |
Forecast Logic:
If MSFT can remain above $504 with conviction, especially after today’s bullish reversal, the path of least resistance is up. Price targets above $520 are in play as the stock eyes a new high. A daily close above $522 could accelerate the move into the $528–$530 region.
However, if price fails to hold $504 on a retest, it could dip back toward the $498 zone before bouncing again. That would invalidate the short-term breakout setup.
Buy, Hold, or Sell Decision Table
| Action | Trigger Condition | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| BUY | Close above $522.12 | All-time high breakout confirmation |
| HOLD | Range between $504–$522 | Consolidation before next move |
| SELL | Break below $502.00 | Loss of support and trend failure |
Buy Setup:
A close above $522.12 — which marks the current 52-week and all-time high — would be a confirmed breakout. If that candle comes with above-average volume, this becomes a high-probability trend continuation play. Risk can be managed with tight stops under $512, and reward targets stretch up to $530+.
Hold Setup:
If MSFT chops between $504 and $522, there’s no clear signal. This is a classic wait-and-see range — traders can hold existing positions but should avoid overcommitting without confirmation.
Sell Setup:
A clean break and close below $502 would flip the chart bearish, at least short term. That would indicate trend exhaustion and opens the door for a pullback to $498 or even $475. Use caution if volume spikes during that breakdown.
Fundamental Triggers
Earnings Season Tailwind
Microsoft is expected to report Q2 earnings on July 30, which adds a layer of volatility and potential catalyst to the chart. Traders should be careful holding breakout positions into earnings unless risk is well-managed.
If Microsoft delivers strong Azure growth and beats EPS estimates, the $522 ceiling could shatter quickly. However, soft guidance or flat cloud numbers could trigger a sell-the-news reaction.
Macro Environment
The tech sector is benefiting from dovish Fed commentary and decreasing inflation expectations. If the next CPI print confirms a softening trend, mega-cap growth names like MSFT are likely to benefit.
Analyst Sentiment
Wall Street sentiment remains broadly bullish. Several large-cap analysts have $540–$560 price targets on MSFT based on AI integrations and expanding enterprise software demand.
Institutional Flow
BlackRock and Vanguard continue to increase their stake in Microsoft quarter-over-quarter. This provides a strong demand base that supports upward momentum.
Final Thoughts
Outlook: Moderately Bullish
Microsoft is one of the strongest mega-cap tech charts in the market right now. The uptrend is clean, the structure is intact, and buyers are stepping in exactly where they should. The key is follow-through above $516–$522.
Zones to Watch:
- Breakout Level: $522
- Support Flip Zone: $504
- Bear Trap Line: $498
Risks:
- Failing to break above $522 and printing a double-top could lead to downside reversion.
- If price stalls below $510 for multiple days, it suggests buyer fatigue — time to get defensive.
Personal Trader Insight:
In my experience, when a stock like MSFT builds a solid base above prior resistance and then pops with a full-body green candle, it usually signals institutional accumulation. But you need confirmation — no need to jump the gun.
If I see price push above $516.30 and hold into the close, I’m taking that trade toward $530 with stops below $504. But if price gets rejected there again — especially near earnings — I’ll hold off until the event risk clears.
The best trades happen after fakeouts, not during them. So watch for manipulation around $522.
