QuantumScape (QS) Stock Analysis – July 17, 2025
QuantumScape (QS) just printed one of its most aggressive green candles in recent memory, closing at $13.12 (+15.59%). The stock opened weak but reversed hard, blowing past both psychological resistance at $12 and short-term traders’ profit targets. Volume was surging, and the candlestick structure screams momentum chase in full force.
Technically, this looks like the climax of a parabolic run that started quietly beneath $7. However, volume analysis tells us late longs are getting aggressive, and we’re likely nearing an exhaustion point — or a massive breakout if this is fundamentally justified.
Contents
- QS Stock Chart Analysis
- Trend Review:
- Chart Patterns:
- Volume Behavior:
- Indicators (if applied):
- Psychology & Sentiment:
- Risk Level? High.
- Support & Resistance Levels Table
- 7-Day Price Forecast Table
- Why this forecast?
- Buy, Hold, or Sell Table
- Final Recommendation:
- Fundamental Triggers
- Next Catalyst:
- Macro & Sector Notes:
- Company Financial Analysis:
- 52-Week High & Low Table
- Current Situation:
- Final Thoughts
QS Stock Chart Analysis
Let’s break down the candlestick action like any smart retail trader would on TradingView.
Trend Review:
- From $6.50 area in mid-June, QS has now doubled in a vertical line.
- Every pullback has been bought aggressively.
- Candle size has expanded daily — classic signs of late-stage FOMO.
Chart Patterns:
- No healthy consolidation: This is straight-up price discovery.
- Recent candles resemble bullish marubozu patterns — almost no wicks, clean closes at highs.
- Today’s candle (July 17) had a wide range:
Low: $11.45 → High: $13.30 → Close: $13.12.
That’s strong, but psychologically dangerous: chasing here is risky.
Volume Behavior:
- Volume spike over the past 7 sessions — each bigger than the last.
- This indicates institutional interest or aggressive retail flows.
- However, this type of volume late in a run often signals distribution nearing.
Indicators (if applied):
- RSI likely > 80 now — extremely overbought.
- MACD bullish crossover already occurred in early July.
- SMA/EMA: Price is detached from 20/50 EMA — expect mean reversion soon.
Psychology & Sentiment:
- Late longs getting trapped soon? Possibly.
- Shorts getting obliterated — they’re forced buyers now.
- The stock feels like it’s entering a fear-of-missing-out (FOMO) chase zone.
Risk Level? High.
Support & Resistance Levels Table
| Type | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Support 1 | $11.00 | Last minor breakout level |
| Support 2 | $10.00 | Round psychological level |
| Support 3 | $9.00 | Where last consolidation occurred |
| Support 4 | $7.50 | Start of this vertical leg |
| Resistance 1 | $13.50 | Today’s failed wick zone |
| Resistance 2 | $14.50 | Psychological next round level |
| Resistance 3 | $16.00 | Next fib extension target |
| Resistance 4 | $17.50 | Historical supply from 2023 |
7-Day Price Forecast Table
| Date | High | Low | Expected Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 18 | $13.80 | $12.50 | $13.10 |
| July 19 | $14.20 | $12.80 | $13.70 |
| July 20 | $15.00 | $13.00 | $14.20 |
| July 21 | $15.50 | $13.50 | $14.80 |
| July 22 | $16.20 | $14.00 | $15.70 |
| July 23 | $16.80 | $14.50 | $16.20 |
| July 24 | $17.20 | $15.20 | $16.50 |
Why this forecast?
- Momentum is king short-term.
- RSI > 80 suggests minor cooling soon.
- MACD is still expanding upwards.
- Unless news breaks the flow, this remains a chaseable breakout.
Buy, Hold, or Sell Table
| Signal | Recommendation | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | Hold | Overbought but not reversing yet |
| MACD | Buy | Strong bullish momentum remains |
| Candlestick | Caution | Parabolic; late-stage risks high |
Final Recommendation:
Short-term traders: If you’re already in, raise stops and let it run.
Fresh money? Wait for a $2 pullback minimum — this is not the place to initiate without serious risk appetite.
This is NOT investment-grade buying here. This is momentum gambling until proven otherwise.
Fundamental Triggers
Next Catalyst:
Earnings due August 7, 2025.
Expect volatility — QS is a speculative EV battery tech play, not a cash cow yet.
Macro & Sector Notes:
- EV stocks have rebounded as rates expectations cool.
- Tesla earnings ahead could swing sentiment.
- Market rotation favors speculative tech recently.
Company Financial Analysis:
| Metric | Data |
|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | Still pre-revenue (R&D stage) |
| Profit Margins | Negative |
| Cash Burn | Significant, but runway extended |
| Debt | Manageable after latest raise |
Business Financial Analysis: QS remains all promise, no profits yet.
- Valuation Analysis: Pricing in future success heavily. This is speculative, not value investing.
- Earnings Analysis: They’re burning cash to scale — no near-term EPS surprises expected.
52-Week High & Low Table
| Metric | Price |
|---|---|
| 52-Week High | $17.50 (2023) |
| 52-Week Low | $4.96 (April 2025) |
Current Situation:
- QS is now approaching its 52-week breakout zone.
- Next 10% move either triggers a breakout or traps late buyers.
- Risk analysis: Chasing now exposes traders to a sharp $2+ flush if sentiment flips.
Final Thoughts
Right now, QuantumScape (QS) is either in a massive breakout phase or a blow-off top trap.
This run feels technical, not fundamental. Shorts are squeezed, and momentum funds are buying.
Portfolio analysis tip: Size small, treat this as tactical, not core. If you’re managing risk professionally, QS belongs in your speculative sleeve, not your anchor holdings.
The next 7-10% move is critical:
- Break $14.50 cleanly? Next stop $16-$17 fast.
- Fail $12.50? Back to $10 is realistic.
