As of this week, Tesla (TSLA) stock is trading at $328.49, pulling back slightly after tagging a high of $338.00. The broader structure remains neutral to bullish, but the recent candles show hesitation around a key resistance zone.
- 52-Week High: $416.00
- 52-Week Low: $160.00
- Nearest Support: $310.00-$315.00
- Immediate Resistance: $338.00–$350.00 zone
- Current Price: $328.49
Tesla stock has staged a healthy bounce from its April lows around $270 and is now approaching a make-or-break level. With the futures market projecting indecision and low momentum, bulls need a strong close above $350 to unlock further upside.
Contents
- Candlestick Chart Analysis (Weekly)
- Trend Overview
- Recent Candlestick Patterns
- Price Action Observation
- Volume Behavior
- Indicators Outlook (Based on price structure)
- Support and Resistance Levels
- 7-Day Price Forecast Table
- Buy, Hold, or Sell Decision Table
- Analyst Verdict:
- Fundamental Triggers to Watch
- Final Thoughts
Candlestick Chart Analysis (Weekly)
Looking at the weekly TSLA candlestick chart, here’s the technical breakdown:
Trend Overview
The stock is currently in a multi-week recovery uptrend after bottoming out around $270 in late April 2025. However, it hasn’t yet reclaimed the strong bullish structure seen in Q4 2024.
Recent Candlestick Patterns
- The last 3 weeks show short-bodied candles with long wicks, signaling indecision and potential exhaustion near resistance.
- Two weeks ago printed a doji candle, often a signal of a reversal or trend pause.
- This week’s candle is attempting a breakout but lacks conviction and volume confirmation.
Price Action Observation
- The move from $270 to $338 was clean, but now TSLA is stalling below the weekly supply zone ($338–$350).
- No breakout or strong rejection—yet. This is a textbook “decision point” zone.
Volume Behavior
- Weekly volume has decreased, showing buyer fatigue.
- No institutional volume spikes to support a breakout.
Indicators Outlook (Based on price structure)
- If TSLA closes above $335 with strong follow-through, we could see a run to $362 and beyond.
- A rejection here would likely retest $310, possibly even deeper toward $285.
Support and Resistance Levels
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the current key levels for TSLA:
| Type | Price Level | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $338.00 | Weekly resistance from recent highs |
| Resistance 2 | $350.00 | Top of supply zone |
| Resistance 3 | $362.00 | Breakout trigger |
| Resistance 4 | $416.00 | 52-week high |
| Support 1 | $310.00 | Recent higher low, strong demand zone |
| Support 2 | $285.00 | Previous breakout retest zone |
| Support 3 | $270.00 | April 2025 swing low |
| Support 4 | $160.00 | 52-week low |
Key Zone to Watch: A weekly close above $338–$350 could spark a bullish breakout, while a failure here could lead to a selloff toward $285–$270.
7-Day Price Forecast Table
Here’s our short-term projection based on chart structure and market sentiment:
| Date | High | Low | Expected Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 (Jul 22) | $334 | $323 | $328 |
| Day 2 | $336 | $325 | $330 |
| Day 3 | $340 | $327 | $332 |
| Day 4 | $344 | $330 | $338 |
| Day 5 | $348 | $335 | $342 |
| Day 6 | $352 | $340 | $345 |
| Day 7 | $355 | $342 | $348 |
If Tesla holds above $325 and volume improves, a grind up toward $348–$350 is likely. A break below $323 could flip short-term sentiment back to bearish.
Buy, Hold, or Sell Decision Table
| Action | Trigger Condition | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| BUY | Close above $350 | Clean breakout from supply zone |
| HOLD | Trading in $310–$338 range | Choppy, uncertain structure |
| SELL | Break below $310 | Breakdown from key support |
Analyst Verdict:
Right now, TSLA sits in a consolidation zone, not ideal for new positions unless:
- It breaks out above $350 with rising volume, or
- It pulls back to demand at $285–$310 for a low-risk entry
This is a classic “wait-and-see” zone for smart money.
Fundamental Triggers to Watch
While this analysis is technical, traders must be aware of these upcoming events that could shake TSLA’s chart:
- 📅 Q2 Earnings Report – Due Late July
- 🏛️ Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – July 31
- 📉 Inflation and Jobs Data that could sway market risk sentiment
- 🚗 EV Sector News: Any headlines from NIO, Rivian, or Ford could cause sympathy moves
- 🧠 AI & Autopilot Updates: Tesla’s tech narratives are often more powerful than fundamentals
Final Thoughts
Tesla is at a critical chart juncture, and futures are hinting at low momentum with upside potential.
- Short-Term Outlook: Cautiously bullish
- Breakout Trigger: $350
- Downside Risk: Below $310
- Best Risk/Reward Entry: Pullback to $310–$285 zone
In my experience, when weekly candles cluster tightly below resistance without a breakout, it often signals accumulation or a trap for breakout chasers. Until volume confirms, I won’t chase.
If TSLA gets stuffed at $338 again, I’ll consider short-term puts or wait for a cleaner entry.
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Thanks Andrew